Milei's victory and 40 years of democracy in Argentina

In the year that marks four uninterrupted decades of democracy, Argentina elects Javier Milei, a far-right outsider whose program combines ultraliberal economic policies with conservative social policies. During his campaign, Milei promised to close the Central Bank, dollarize the economy, and reduce the cabinet to just eight portfolios. He also stated that "social justice" was an "aberration" and that, therefore, it was necessary to end social programs, following a broad plan to reduce the size of the State, which also includes the privatization of several state-owned companies. Internationally, he stated that he would cut ties with countries he considers "communist," including Brazil and China, Argentina's two largest trading partners. Furthermore, he has already positioned himself in favor of ending legal abortion and prohibiting same-sex marriage, and considers climate change a "leftist hoax." Hisrunning mate, Victoria Villarruel, who is the daughter and granddaughter of military officers, has been one of the leading voices calling for a review of the convictions of Armed Forces officers for crimes committed during the dictatorship that lasted from 1976 to 1983. Both Milei and Villarruel deny estimates that around 30,000 people were victims of the repressive policies at the time, claiming that the number is much lower, and seek to equate the crimes committed by guerrilla groups with crimes committed by state terrorism. 

What has happened over these four decades of democracy that made the victory of this governing platform possible? Moreover, what might Milei's victory represent for the future of democracy?

The “Perverse Confluence” Between Democratization and Neoliberalism 

The first president elected after the dictatorship, Raúl Alfonsín, once said something that still resonates in the Argentine social and political imagination and is frequently remembered: "with democracy, one eats, one heals, and one educates." Those words encapsulated a horizon of expectations that the end of the authoritarian period would not only guarantee fundamental freedoms but also, through democracy, ensure a more dignified life from a socioeconomic perspective. 

Until the 1970s, Argentine society was recognized for its high levels of inclusion, very close to those of developed countries. However, the military dictatorship adopted a neoliberal economic policy that favored sectors of productive and financial capital, with high social costs (Vannucchi 2012). To contain the reaction of organized civil society, which was strongly affected by the rising poverty and inequality, the use of repressive methods became commonplace. 

In the early years following the dictatorship, a minimalist conception of democracy prevailed in the hegemonic political debate, according to which it was necessary to concentrate efforts on building a new political culture in a country with a long history of institutions that were scarcely democratic, pluralistic, and tolerant. The human rights movement played a central role in convincing civil society that, in order to prevent history from repeating itself, it was necessary to punish the crimes committed during the nefarious years that preceded them. 

In this context, a democratic framework was established that placed much emphasis on negative liberties (that is, those that protect individuals from state interference) and representation, with less emphasis on positive liberties, linked to direct citizen participation in the political process. Meanwhile, social rights, aimed at reducing inequalities and promoting well-being, occupied a marginal place in public debate (Rinesi 2023). In other words, in the fight against the dictatorship, the priority was to dismantle its perverse repressive apparatus, but the perversity of the inherited economic policy continued to cause increasingly profound damage. 

Ironically, it was under a Peronist government that neoliberalism advanced even more vigorously. Carlos Menem, between 1989 and 1999, promoted a series of state reforms that abruptly accelerated the dismantling of the economic model built in the 1940s, focused on the domestic market, and replaced it with an export-oriented food model (Rinesi 2023, 72). 

The promise that shrinking the State would result in better economic indicators did not materialize. At the end of 2001, the Gini index reached its lowest level in history (0.54), and about 50% of the population was below the poverty line (Trujillo 2017). All this occurred amid corruption scandals that contributed to the discrediting of traditional politics. The year 2001 was the peak of the political crisis, when various protests broke out across the country, with young people shouting: "Everyone should leave!" (translated by the editors from the original spanish quote). This slogan was appropriated by Javier Milei's campaign this year to capitalize on the widespread rejection of mainstream parties, while giving it very different meanings from those it carried in 2001. 

Argentina after 2001

In line with the demands coming from the streets, the governments of Néstor Kirchner (2003-2007) and Cristina Kirchner (2008-2015) promoted measures that curbed the advance of neoliberalism, such as the renationalization of privatized companies and the implementation of policies aimed at income redistribution and the inclusion of minorities, which reduced social inequalities (Trujillo 2017). 

However, the applied development model was unable to overcome the prevailing economic logic. The bet on "neo-extractivism", one of the main contradictions of Kirchnerism, as Svampa (2019) points out, proved extremely vulnerable to the sharp contraction in Chinese demand. Furthermore, the model severely affects the rights of communities living in the territories where these mega-mineral extraction projects are implemented and is extremely detrimental to the environment. 

In addition, a series of corruption allegations, reported daily by the media, contributed to tarnishing the reputations of Cristina Kirchner and her allies, highlighting the polarization that continues to impact political disputes to this day. In this year's election, for example, Milei knew how to exploit the "Kirchnerists versus anti-Kirchnerists" dichotomy to his advantage throughout the campaign, especially in the second round. 

In the 2015 elections, Mauricio Macri, a representative of the traditional right, won. The implementation of a decidedly neoliberal agenda led to the reversal of many of the policies adopted during the Kirchner era, as well as the return of measures that guided economic management during the 1990s (Machado 2021). Once again, the recipe did not work: the purchasing power of the minimum wage fell by 20%, inflation exceeded 50%, and more than a third of the population fell back below the poverty line. The exorbitant increase in debt led the president to turn to the IMF, taking out a multibillion-dollar loan.

In the following elections, Peronism managed to reorganize itself and presented convincing data showing that the recent past under the Kirchner administrations had been more prosperous for most of the population than the four years under the Macri administration. The Peronist ticket was headed by Alberto Fernández, with Cristina Kirchner as his running mate. After the elections, it became clear that the differences between the two were irreconcilable, and the vice president began harshly criticizing Fernández's decisions. 

In addition to internal disputes, Fernández had to deal with the economic and social effects of the pandemic and faced one of the worst droughts in history. The result of these contingencies, coupled with the inability to contain the economic crisis, was disastrous. Inflation skyrocketed, exceeding 140% per year; poverty reached 40%; and it is estimated that GDP may fall by 2.3% this year (Pereira, Brasesco, Trenchi & Mihm 2023).  

Given this, how can one convince an impoverished and disillusioned population that the political force that has been in power for four years, whose candidate is the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, is capable of solving problems of such magnitude? This was the "mission impossible" pursued by Peronism in the 2023 presidential elections.

Milei's victory and the prospects for the new government.

Milei's victory was relatively comfortable, winning 55.7% of the vote against Massa's 43.3%. It is noteworthy that the new president's political career had been quite short. He began to gain fame in 2014 when he started participating in television programs to provide economic analysis, given his background as an economist, and stood out for his eloquent manner and ultraliberal leanings. In 2021, he founded the Libertad Avanza party and surprised everyone by finishing third in the Buenos Aires mayoral elections. 

In his speeches, Milei embodies Argentine society's rejection of traditional politicians, whom the new president refers to as "the caste." His proposals, in line with the strategies of far-right leaders like Jair Bolsonaro and Donald Trump, emphasize dismantling institutions. However, despite winning by a significant margin, there is a high probability that the nihilistic project proposed by Milei cannot be realized, at least not with the intensity and speed he promised. 

Libertad Avanza holds only 37 of the 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and elected only eight of the 72 senators. Given this, the support of Mauricio Macri and Patricia Bullrich, who came in third in the presidential elections, will be essential to maintain even a minimum level of governability. The two are the main leaders of the Juntos por El Cambio (JxC) coalition; nevertheless, Bullrich and Macri's unilateral decision to support Milei without consulting the party has created a deep split that is likely to lead to JxC's implosion. This will make it very difficult for the new president to attract a significant portion of the coalition's parliamentarians to his side. 

However, by inviting Bullrich to serve as Minister of Security and assigning Macri a strategic role in forming the government, Milei signals a moderation compared to what was proposed during the campaign, which may help build greater confidence among traditional media and the market. This will be essential to implement any inflation control strategy. Macri's influence is also evident in the appointment of Luis Caputo, former Minister of Finance during his government, to lead the Economy Ministry. Immediately after his nomination, Caputo declared that the dollarization of the economy should not occur immediately. 

Another ministerial appointment that deserves highlighting is Diana Mondino's appointment as Foreign Minister. Mondino stated that Argentina will not join BRICS (G1 2023), as Milei had already promised during the campaign, but indicated that there should be no ruptures in relations with Brazil. In an official meeting with Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira, Mondino delivered an official invitation for President Lula to attend Milei's inauguration (Landim 2023). 

Therefore, signs point to moderation in campaign rhetoric. The balance between radicalization and moderation will be crucial for the new government to achieve a certain level of stability. If it becomes too radical, the chances of governability will be minimal. Conversely, if it becomes too moderate, it could be accused of electoral fraud, causing the public's confidence in its government to plummet rapidly. This could even have drastic effects on the already weakened political system. 

It is also important to clarify that a considerable portion of the votes given to the president-elect was motivated by rejection of the previous administration and the historical contradictions presented by Peronism. These voters, who identified little with Milei's persona, could easily turn against the government if expectations of change do not materialize. A survey of Milei's voters conducted during the campaign found that support for certain of the then-candidate's proposals was low. Although three-quarters of these voters believe that the State should have a minimal presence, 60% believe that the State should guarantee public health and education, and 79.5% agree that it is the State's duty to guarantee dignified pensions (CIGP 2023). This demonstrates that when the idea of reducing the State moves from abstraction to concrete issues, adherence to Milei's project decreases significantly.

In conclusion, we can affirm that Milei's election results from the fact that Argentine democracy has failed to advance in "substantive" terms regarding the expansion of rights, largely maintaining its liberal-minimalist profile. By applying the formula of a minimal state, already tested on other occasions, the new government should help accelerate this process in the long term. In the short term, however, if Milei manages to contain inflation, it will be a significant achievement, capable of granting him some momentary legitimacy, given the enormous hardships the problem has been causing in the daily lives of Argentinians.

Bibliographic References

CIGP. 2023. “Analysis of Javier Milei’s voter”. Image and Political Management Consultant, September 13, 2023. https://cigp.com.ar/estudio-el-votante-de-javier-milei/ .

G1. 2023. “Javier Milei’s Minister states that Argentina will not join the BRICS group”. November 30, 2023. https://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2023/11/30/ministra-de-javier-milei-afirma-que-argentina-nao-vai-integrar-o-grupo-dos-brics.ghtml .  

Landim, Raquel. 2023. “Milei sends letter to Lula and invites him to the inauguration: 'Building ties'”. CNN Brasil, November 26, 2023. https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/politica/milei-envia-carta-a-lula-e-convida-para-a-posse/ . 

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Svampa, Maristella. 2019. “The frontiers of neoextractivism in Latin America. Socio-environmental conflicts and new dependencies”. Mexico: CALAS. https://www.memoria.fahce.unlp.edu.ar/libros/pm.5179/pm.5179.pdf .

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Vannucchi, Edgardo. 2012. “'Carta Abierta de un Escritor a la Junta Militar' Rodolfo Walsh, March 24, 1977”. Series Resources for Class 1 . Buenos Aires: Ministry of Justice and Human Rights of the Nation. http://conti.derhuman.jus.gov.ar/areas/em/serie_1_walsh.pdf .

Received: December 4, 2023

Accepted for publication: December 5, 2023

Translation published: June 23, 2026

* Translated by Theo Pereira with the support of digital machine translation tools: Google Translate (initial draft), Grammarly (grammatical and syntactic revision), and ChatGPT (selective phrasing refinements). Reviewed by the author.

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